Feeling ready to do something does not mean feeling certain that you’ll succeed, though of course that’s what you are hoping to do. Truly being ready means understanding what could go wrong – and having a plan to deal with it.
Chris Hadfield, An Astronaut’s Guide to Life on Earth
Eliud Kipchoge is considered the greatest marathon runner of all time. As with the most iconic athletes, the principles and values they embody are far more relevant than their achievements. In a speech at the Oxford Union in early 2018, Kipchoge said, “I believe in a philosophy that says to win is not important. To be successful is not even important. How to plan and prepare is critical and crucial. When you plan very well, then success can come on your way. Then winning can come on your way.”
It’s natural to feel inspired by him, but how can we prepare and become more competent? It depends on what we want to accomplish, but we can follow some general guidelines. In this post, we will explore the practice of thinking negatively.
Think negatively
In his book, An Astronaut’s Guide to Life on Earth, retired NASA astronaut Chris Hadfield explains that one of the best ways to prepare is to practice “The power of negative thinking.”
As he mentions in his book from his training program at NASA, “trainers in the space program specialize in devising bad-news scenarios for us to act out, over and over again, in increasingly elaborate simulations. We practice what we’ll do if there’s engine trouble, a computer meltdown, an explosion.” These simulations play a significant role in Chris Hadfield’s understanding of competence. He continues, “Being forced to confront the prospect of failure head-on-to study it, dissect it, tease apart all its components and consequences- really works. After a few years of doing that pretty much daily, you’ve forged the strongest possible armor to defend against fear: hard-won competence.”
When the stakes are high, as with space exploration, nothing can be left to chance — every detail matters because the mission’s success and the astronaut’s survival depends on it — and these simulations made astronauts more competent.
One could argue that these simulations are not critical for competence because reality is very complex, and sooner than later, unexpected things happen. If that’s the case, what’s the point of devising bad news scenarios? The key is to see beyond the simulations themselves. The most interesting lesson was not about learning to deal with a computer meltdown or an explosion (which, by the way, was extremely important because it could be lifesaving) but the learning process that came after that.
Once the simulations were carried out, astronauts could analyze their decisions, listen to feedback, and look for areas of improvement. Maybe they performed poorly under pressure, or the crew could have cooperated more efficiently. Or perhaps these simulations made astronauts realize that making good decisions with limited information in a hostile environment is highly complicated. These lessons could be the key to competence; they apply to a specific simulation, and any challenge astronauts may encounter during their future missions. When the unexpected happens, not only in space exploration but also in life, knowing how to thrive under pressure or make good decisions with uncertainty could make a difference.
Thinking negatively also teaches you another critical lesson: the obsession with detail. When simulating bad scenarios, you are constantly looking for potential problems, which can also be considered areas of improvement. This mindset is what it often takes to achieve competence in any endeavor and is what NASA trainers were seeking when making up simulations for astronauts.
The practice of negative thinking is not specific to astronauts. For Marcus Aurelius, being a roman emperor was not easy. He faced war, disease, and even a full-scale civil war. In addition, he was surrounded by senators and military members who didn’t share his values, didn’t want him as emperor, and even wanted him dead.
In his Meditations, he tells himself: “When you wake up in the morning, tell yourself: The people I deal with today will be meddling, ungrateful, arrogant, dishonest, jealous, and surly. They are like this because they can’t tell good from evil … And so, none of them can hurt me. No one can implicate me in ugliness. Nor can I feel angry at my relative or hate him.”
Nothing was more important for Marcus Aurelius than what the stoics call the four virtues: courage, discipline, wisdom, and temperance. In the face of chaos, it is straightforward to be carried away by negative emotions and respond irrationally. By planning his day and recognizing the problematic people he would encounter, he was in a better mindset to react rationally and calmly. He practiced negative visualization not because he was pessimistic but because he wanted to be better prepared for difficult situations.
Thinking negatively: running a marathon
Consider a non-experienced runner training for a marathon. Marathons are demanding, both physically and mentally. They require mental toughness, discipline, good physical health, and hours and hours of training. Injuries are one of the most common drawbacks when training for a marathon; no one is immune to them.
How can we think negatively to avoid getting an injury? Before starting your training regime, consider the possibility of you getting injured. Assume the usual thing is to get hurt somewhere along the way, not the opposite. And once you have visualized how things could go wrong, act out and try to prevent them. To do so, you could start with the following questions:
• What are the most common injuries among marathon runners?
• What are some leading causes of injuries, and how can they be avoided?
• How can we reduce the probability of getting injured?
• What will you do if you get injured?
And then, act. Study the most common injuries among marathon runners: shin splints, back pain, stress fractures, or Runner’s knee. Second, try to understand why they happen; they may be due to a combination of different factors: improper running technique, lack of body mobility, insufficient muscle mass, inadequate running shoes, or overtraining, among others. Then, work on them one by one:
• Add strengthening exercises to your routine to become stronger.
• Add mobility and stretching exercises.
• Schedule your workouts, leaving time to rest
• Sleep well and eat healthily.
• Make sure your running shoes are adequate.
• Improve your running technique.
You may follow these rules and get injured, or not follow them and run a marathon injury-free. Does it mean you wasted your time? Not really. We can never be sure what will happen; some things remain outside our control. If you acted in a way that helped you move in the right direction, it’s okay.
Conclusion
Sometimes visualizing how things could go wrong is complicated: we may feel fear, lack imagination, or prefer to assume things will always go our way. Don’t let all that stop you! The lessons you can learn from visualizing negative scenarios are definitively worth the effort. If astronauts, a roman emperor, or athletes can benefit from devising bad news scenarios and acting out, then the rest of us can. We all have room for improvement, and if there is something we can learn from these examples is that we are only limited by our willingness to improve.